The Philadelphia Eagles trading Carson Wentz feels like a foregone conclusion at this point. Whether it happens today, tomorrow, or next week is anyone’s guess. But it will happen, it’s just a matter of when.
Reports on what kind of compensation the Eagles will get in return for their 28-year-old quarterback has varied. Some believe Howie Roseman will be lucky to get anything higher than a second round pick, while others think it’s a first round pick or nothing.
If we base a potential Wentz trade on the most recent blockbuster trade involving high paid quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff, it’ll give us a better understanding of what compensation for Wentz might look like.
The Rams sent two first round picks, a third round pick, and quarterback Jared Goff in exchange for Matthew Stafford. In reality, Wentz should get a similar yield. Recency bias will tell you Stafford is obviously the better quarterback, therefore he should have a higher return in a trade.
There are a lot of similarities in Stafford and Wentz when you look at the numbers. They both have one Pro Bowl a piece, both have never won a playoff game, and both have the talent to be franchise quarterbacks. The differences are found when you look at their age and contract numbers.
Stafford will play out the remaining two years on his current deal and the Rams will take on a $20 million cap hit next season. Stafford will remain on the Lions payroll for this season, and then be off the books next year. Whomever trades for Wentz will likely want to split cap hit similarly to how the Rams and Lions divvied Stafford’s up. I would assume Wentz’s new team will likely have to pay somewhere between $22-$27 million next year, and then his contract numbers will increase as the entirety of his remaining contract gets passed from the Eagles.
The major difference between their contracts is that Stafford only has two years remaining and isn’t expected to ask for a contract extension. While Wentz will be under contract until 2024 at least. So whoever trades for Wentz will obviously view him as their long-term solution at quarterback.
Stafford and Wentz are very similar quarterbacks on paper. They both possess great talent but they’ve both underachieved during their careers. Given the fact that Wentz is five years younger than Stafford with similar talent, I don’t see why the Eagles wouldn’t at least get a first round pick for him.
Wentz’s durability and some of the rumored leadership issues may worry teams looking for a long-term answer at quarterback. The talent is the real selling point here, and at the end of the day, Roseman is a business man who’s made his living on making trade deals like this.
He was able to flip Sam Bradford for a first round pick back in 2016, coming off a year in which he threw 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Wentz’s value is higher than Bradford’s and it’s not even close.
Fair compensation for Wentz would be at least a first round pick, and possibly more. But a first round pick alone is alluring enough. If Howie isn’t able to negotiate a deal along those lines for a quarterback like Wentz, he obviously shouldn’t be an NFL general manager any longer.