Phillies: Comparing 2020’s projections to what was actually put forth this season

Back in July when the 60 game season was announced I decided to predict a starting lineup and stats for the 9 Phillies that I thought would be the everyday options. This article will compare predicted stats to actual stats after a very disappointing season from the Philadelphia Phillies. With extended playoffs, a weak division, and one of the highest payrolls in the Major Leagues, missing the playoffs in 2020 leaves us with more questions than answers moving forward.

2020 Projected Lineup

  1. Andrew McCutchen LF
  2. Jean Segura 3B
  3. Bryce Harper RF
  4. Rhys Hoskins 1B
  5. J.T. Realmuto C
  6. Didi Gregorius SS
  7. Jay Bruce DH
  8. Scott Kingery 2B
  9. Adam Haseley CF

Injuries caused this lineup to move around throughout the season and the emergence of star rookie Alec Bohm was quickly a big part of this offense. Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto, Jay Bruce, and Scott Kingery all missed extended time opening up bigger roles for Jean Segura, Andrew Knapp, Roman Quinn, and Phil Gosselin.

With a chance to clinch a playoff spot in the last game of the season against the now American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays, Joe Girardi sent out this lineup in the 60th and final game of the regular season

  1. Andrew Mcutchen LF
  2. Alec Bohm 3B
  3. Bryce Harper DH
  4. J.T. Realmuto C
  5. Jean Segura 2B
  6. Didi Gregorius SS
  7. Phil Gosselin 1B
  8. Scott Kingery CF
  9. Roman Quinn

Lets take a look at projected stats to actual stats and a brief outlook on each players future with the team.

Andrew McCutchen

Projected: 53G/.277AVG/8HR/33RBI/.342OBP

Actual: 57G/.253/10HR/34RBI/.324OBP

Outlook: I expected a slightly higher average out of McCutchen but he was right on par with my projections. He got off to a slow start mostly because of coming back from an ACL tear and not having a regular spring to get his timing back. McCutchen has 1 year left on his 3-year 50 million dollar deal and I fully expect him to be the everyday left fielder once again in 2021.

Jean Segura

Projected: 45G/.282AVG/5HR/18RBI/.305OBP

Actual: 54G/.266AVG/7HR/25RBI/.347OBP

Outlook: I expected Jean Segura to be platooning in the lineup with Scott Kingery once Alec Bohm was called up to the Majors, but the horrendous struggles of Kingery led to Segura being the everyday second or third baseman. Segura was solid for the Phillies and seemed to be very comfortable at second base. I think Segura returns as the everyday second baseman after a very solid season. I would like to see Segura back in full form as he was consistently a .300 hitter before coming to the Phillies in the 2018 offseason. If he can, he will be a major part of the team’s offense.

Bryce Harper

Projected: 59G/.289AVG/17HR/44RBI/.350OBP

Actual: 58G/.268AVG/13HR/33RBI/.420OBP

Outlook: I was expecting an MVP caliber season out of Bryce, he started hot for the Phillies early on with his batting average over .340 through the first 2 weeks of the season, but once again Bryce entered a huge slump in the middle part of the season causing his statistics to suffer. Bryce will be entering year 3 of his 13-year contract with the Phillies and it’s time for him to carry the Phillies into the post season in 2021. Overall I thought Bryce had a solid season, he just really needs to find a way to avoid the multiple week slump in the future.

Rhys Hoskins

Projected: 58G/.265AVG/14HR/36RBI/.340OBP

Actual: 41G/.245AVG/10HR/26RBI/.384OBP

Outlook: Rhys Hoskins suffered a season ending injury on a collision at first base on a poor throw from J.T. Realmuto. Hoskins had to get Tommy John surgery on his elbow as a result of the injury and is most likely going to miss some time in 2021. It was sad to see because Rhys was absolutely on fire at the plate at the time, after being in a tremendous slump for the first month and a half of the season. I think Rhys belongs in this lineup in the future, it’s just very difficult to watch our two best power hitters (Harper/Hoskins) go through long slumps, and they never seem to be hot at the same time. I think Rhys will continue to be streaky in the future, but his high on base percentage will continue to provide value to the lineup.

J.T. Realmuto

Projected: 55G/.283AVG/10HR/30RBI/.310OBP

Actual: 47G/.266AVG/11HR/32RBI/.349OBP

Outlook: Because of the wonderful job our ex-GM Matt Klentak did, Realmuto will be playing for a different team next year. The decision to not lock up Realmuto after acquiring him in 2019 was a horrible one. Klentak gambled on his play and day in and day out J.T. showed why he is the best catcher in baseball. Some reports are out that he could potentially receive 200+ million and the Phillies are not in any sort of position to give him that contract. It was a fun two years, but once again upper management of the Phillies has let the fanbase down.

Didi Gregorius

Projected: 57G/.262AVG/8HR/22RBI/.296OBP

Actual: 60G/.284AVG/10HR/40RBI/.339OBP

Outlook: Didi is set to be a free agent this offseason after signing a 1-year, $14 million deal in the winter. Didi was one of the Phillies biggest X-factors all season long, as he led the team in RBIs and played gold glove caliber shortstop. I think Gregorius should be the Phillies first priority this offseason; his durability, defense, and overall production at the plate has earned him a multiple year contract extension. It will be interesting to see if he hits the open market, but I think he will be back in 2021 as the everyday shortstop.

Scott Kingery

Projected: 52G/.270AVG/6HR/19RBI/.289OBP

Actual: 36G/.159AVG/3HR/6RBI/.228OBP

Outlook: Scott Kingery looked absolutely lost in 2020. After a promising 2019 season I expected Kingery to be a sparkplug for the Phillies with his ability to play multiple positions and his speed. I really expected him to be a major piece to this team. He will be entering his third year of a 6-year deal in 2021 and I would say he has about two months to prove he belongs in the Major Leagues once the 2021 season begins. I really don’t know what Kingery is at this point in the field, his second base defense was below average, Bohm will be a mainstay at third base, and there are better options in the outfield. He looks to be a bench player entering 2021 but Phil Gosselin deserves more playing time after a very good season as the Phillies bench utility player.

Adam Haseley/Roman Quinn

Outlook: Adam Haseley was the Phillies first round pick in 2017, he shows some maturity at the plate and plays a very good centerfield. Roman Quinn has elite, game changing speed, but is a below average defender in centerfield as he made some very poor decisions that cost the Phillies some games in 2020. Girardi seems to favor Quinn which makes Haseley a trade piece this offseason. I am not sure what direction the new front office will want to go with the centerfield position but right now I am not certain that either of these players will be the everyday centerfielder moving forward.

2021 Projected Lineup

  1. Andrew McCutchen LF
  2. Alec Bohm 3B
  3. Bryce Harper RF
  4. Rhys Hoskins 1B
  5. Didi Gregorius SS
  6. Empty CF
  7. Empty C
  8. Jean Segura 2B
  9. Empty DH

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