The Philadelphia Eagles are set to host the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Thursday Night Football this week.
As we do every week, let’s take a look at some favorable prop bets for this week’s matchup.
All props provided by BetMGM.
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Jalen Hurts OVER 279.5 passing yards (-115)
Tampa Bay has the worst pass defense in the NFL this season statistically. They allow an average of 314.4 passing yards per game and a completion percentage of 72.8% for opposing quarterbacks. Their defense remains stout because of their elite run defense, but they have trouble stopping a nose bleed on the backend. We know Nick Sirianni is going to pass the ball all over the yard, especially when you consider how favorable this matchup is on paper. Expect Jalen Hurts to throw it early and often in this one, making that 279.5 passing yards benchmark very attainable.
DeVonta Smith OVER 71.5 receiving yards (-110)
The same reasons Hurts will go over 279 passing yards apply to DeVonta Smith as well. Tampa’s cornerback situation is pretty brutal at this point in the season. According to PFF, they don’t have a starting corner ranked inside the top-32 in terms of overall season grades. Newly acquired Richard Sherman has been awful, allowing 10 receptions on 12 targets for 103 yards over the past two games. Jamel Dean has been the best of the group for Tampa Bay, allowing a 44.4% completion percentage and a 56.7 passer rating when targeted. Nevertheless, Smith should still be in for a big day. He’s gotten better with each passing week, and he’s clearly Hurts’ favorite target in the passing game. He has 15 more targets than any pass catcher on the Eagles offense. Expect another big game out of Smith Thursday night.
Leonard Fournette OVER 62.5 rushing yards (-115)
As good as the Eagles defense looked on Sunday against Carolina, they still struggled to stop the run consistently. They allowed 103 yards on the ground to a Christian McCaffrey-less offense. While the Bucs aren’t necessarily known as an offense that will lean on the run, they’ve steadily gotten more balanced as the season’s progressed. Leonard Fournette has gone over 62 rushing yards in his last two games. He’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry, which is the highest mark of his career. If Tampa takes the lead, which is almost certainly going to happen at some point, don’t be shocked to see Tom Brady turn around and hand it to Fournette. I don’t envision him taking over the game by any means, but Fournette is good enough to churn out yards when needed, and getting over 62 is pretty likely against this defense.
Quez Watkins OVER 20.5 yards for his longest reception (-110)
Quez Watkins has become the big play threat in the Eagles offense this year. His average yards per reception in 2021 is 20.5, which just so happens to be what the over/under is set at for his longest reception of the night. Watkins isn’t a volume player at this point in his career, but he’ll more than likely be given a few opportunities to go over the top against Tampa. Considering he averages 20.5 yards per reception, I’d be pretty surprised if he didn’t have a reception that was at least this long on Thursday night.
Kenny Gainwell OVER 13.5 rushing yards (-115)
Regardless of how good Tampa’s run defense is, Gainwell should have no problem getting at least 14 yards in this contest. He’s gotten at least 14 rushing yards in every game except for one this year and I expect his touches to go up a bit from last week, where he only got three total touches. The Eagles may not have a lot of success on the ground in this one, but Gainwell getting at least 14 yards of production isn’t too tall of an order.