Another week of over/unders from the gang at Full Scale Philly—Go Birds!
UNDER 47.5 total points (-120)
The Eagles offense sucks and the Browns offense has stagnated of late (16 points in two weeks). Add in a forecast of bad weather and this is the smart play.
Nick Chubb OVER 70.5 rush yards (-110)
Consider the O17.5 carries also—but I expect Chubb to rip off at least one big carry for chunk yards, so I feel like the yardage is the better play. Throw in the aforementioned bad weather and the Browns already-present commitment to running the ball and this feels as safe as it gets.
Carson Wentz UNDER 22.5 completions (-108)
I’m fading Wentz’s accuracy at this point, and as I’ve mentioned, it’s raining. Wentz has had over 22.5 completions just once in the past six games, and he hasn’t done it the past two weeks against Dallas and New York, two of the worst defenses in football. Facing an above average defense in the Browns, don’t expect Wentz to buck this trend.
Sanders OVER 83.5 total (rush + rec) yards (-113)
If Doug isn’t a total dope then he’ll ride Sanders moving forward, and despite the Browns solid run defense this feels like a low total for how good he’s looked when healthy. And of course, don’t forget the bad weather.
Jarvis Landry OVER 4.5 receptions (+108)
I like the value here—while Landry has only surpassed this total three times this season, on three other occasions he recorded 4 catches. Plus, throws to Landry tend to be safe (bad weather), and the Eagles have been relatively soft in coverage from the nickel spot this season.
Bonus: Goedert anytime TD scorer (+290)
I bet on a big second half from Goedert and so far he’s been quiet, but I’ll keep at it.