Phillies: Updated Stat Projections for Shortened Season

Before the sports world was put on hold due to the Covid-19 outbreak, I had made predictions for the Phillies lineup for a 162 game season. With a DH now being a part of the National League for the first time ever, several Phillies players roles will be different, and you may see some new faces in the dugout earlier than expected.

In another article, Ryan Haynes predicted 4 potential lineups that Joe Girardi could roll out for the 2020 season, lets use Ryan’s “Basic Lineup” to predict the stats for the 60 game sprint to the playoffs.


Lineup

1. Andrew McCutchen LF
2. Jean Segura 3B
3. Bryce Harper RF
4. Rhys Hoskins 1B
5. J.T. Realmuto C
6. Didi Gregorius SS
7. Jay Bruce DH
8. Scott Kingery 2B
9. Adam Haseley CF

On paper, this lineup looks like a top-10 unit, but many questions will need to be answered this season. Will McCutchen return to an elite leadoff hitter as he showed in the beginning of 2019? Will Hoskins recover from a dreadful second half last year? Will young bats like Kingery, Haseley and Bohm become X-factors for a team in dire need of home grown talent? 2020 should be an interesting year for the Phils.

1. Andrew Mccutchen LF
2020 Projections: 53G/.277AVG/8HR/33RBI/.342OBP

Andrew McCutchen is one player who benefited from the 2020 season being pushed back. In mid-spring, it was reported that Cutch would not be ready for opening day as he was still recovering from his ACL tear that he suffered in May of 2019. This extra time away means he is now 14 months removed from the injury and should be 100% heading into 2020. I expect McCutchen to be the spark plug for the Phillies offense as he will most likely be a mainstay in the leadoff spot.

2. Jean Segura 3B
2020 Projections: 45G/.282AVG/5HR/18RBI/.305OBP

Segura is going to get the first opportunity to be the everyday third baseman heading into 2020, but with Alec Bohm’s MLB debut looming, Segura’s role has potential to change quickly if he is not producing. I think you will see Segura move all over the infield, he will probably start at least five games at 3b, 2b and SS. Segura performed well in the beginning of 2019 when he spent most of the time in the 2-hole. McCutchen being back will have a positive impact on Segura at the plate.

3. Bryce Harper RF
2020 Projections: 59G/.289AVG/17HR/44RBI/.350OBP

Bryce Harper is the kind of player who rises to the occasion. In the second half of last season he carried the Phillies offense, making up for a somewhat underwhelming first half. Bryce is a big moment player, that’s why he got the 13-year mega deal, and I fully expect him to carry this Phillies team to a potential playoff berth. It would not shock me to see Harper put up MVP like numbers this year.

4. Rhys Hoskins 1B
2020 Projections: 58G/.265AVG/14HR/36RBI/.340OBP

Rhys would have benefited more from a 162-game season to try and find his stride again at the plate, but now the pressure is on heading into 2020. The fan base seems to be torn on if he is a part of this team’s future, or if he was just a flash in the pan in 2017. Rhys has 60 games to prove if he can be the future cleanup hitter for this Phillies team, another year of slumping could have him on the market this offseason. I think Rhys will prove he belongs in the middle of this lineup in 2020.

5. J.T. Realmuto C
2020 Projections: 55G(40 as Catcher)/.283AVG/10HR/30RBI/.310OBP

2020 is now looking to be a contract year for Realmuto as the Phillies don’t seem to be committed to extending him before the 2020 season begins. If J.T. hits the open market this winter he will most likely be one of the most sought after free agents. Expect J.T. to prove his worth in 2020 as the Phillies are playing a very dangerous game.

6. Didi Gregorius SS
2020 Projections: 57G/.262AVG/8HR/22RBI/.296OBP

I really don’t know what to expect from Didi at the plate in 2020. Some years he tends to have more power production than others, and injuries are certainly a factor as well. I think he will fit in nicely in the middle of the order and continue to play some of the best shortstop in the league. Didi should be an upgrade from Segura on both ends.

7. Jay Bruce DH
2020 Projections: 40G/.245AVG/9HR/22RBI/.270OBP

Jay Bruce will most likely be the DH against right handed pitching. Bruce provides much needed pop at the end of the Phillies lineup and he could turn out to be a major x-factor. Bruce has been a consistent power threat his whole career and could also fill in the outfield if the Phillies suffer any injuries. Bruce is built to be a DH and his power numbers could soar playing in hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park.

8. Scott Kingery 2B
2020 Projections 52G/.270Avg/6HR/19RBI/.289OBP

I thought Kingery took a major leap in 2019 after a pitiful rookie campaign the year prior. Kingery flashed some of his 5 tool potential last season as he hit for power and played exceptional defense wherever he was placed in the field. I still expect Kingery to move all over the field in 2020, I just hope he can turn into a guy who hits over .300 and can do it all like a prime Dustin Pedroia. That for now is just a dream, let’s hope Kingery keeps trending in the right direction this season.

9. Adam Haseley CF
2020 Projections: 49G/.250AVG/4HR/13RBI/.272OBP

Haseley is another guy who would have benefited from a full 162-game season as he is still a growing major league player. Haseley’s most important factor for 2020 will be his defense, as he played an outstanding center field for the Phillies in 2019. I think you will see some growing pains at the plate for him as the pressure will be on for all hitters to succeed right out of the gate. Regardless of how 2020 turns out for Haseley at the plate, I think he has a bright future as the Phillies everyday center fielder.

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